7 . 8 Forecasting Dust Storms using CARMA - Dust Model and MM 5 Weather Data

نویسندگان

  • B. H. Barnum
  • N. S. Winstead
  • Amy Hakola
  • P. Colarco
  • O. B. Toon
  • P. Ginoux
  • G. W. Brooks
  • L. Hasselbarth
  • B. Toth
چکیده

An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5 generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5) and the University of Colorado CARMA dust transport model. In a unique study, AFWA undertook a 60 study to evaluate the effectiveness of the dust model to make short, medium and long-range (72 hour) forecasts of dust storms. The study is unique in using satellite and ground observations of dust storms and scoring the model effectiveness using standard meteorological statistics. Each of the main forecast regions was broken down into smaller areas for more detailed analysis. The study found the forecast model is an effective forecast tool with Probability of Detection exceeding 68 percent over Northern Africa with a 16 percent False Alarm Ratio. Southwest Asia had average Probability of Detection values of 61 percent with False Alarm Rates averaging 10 percent.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Forecasting dust storms using the CARMA-dust model and MM5 weather data

An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5th generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5) as input to the University of Colorado CARMA dust transport model. AFWA undertook a 60 day evaluation of the effectiveness...

متن کامل

Numerical and Synoptic Study of Emission, Transport and Identify Potential Sources of a Severe Dust Storm Over Middle East

One of the powerful tools in dust storms analysis that have recently found extensive application is atmospheric-chemistry numerical modeling. Spatial and temporal distribution of Middle Eastern dust for a severe dust event during 4-8 July 2009 was analyzed by Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model simulations and remote sensing observations. The HYSPLIT model is applie...

متن کامل

Analysis and tracking dust storms routes entering to east of Iran using the particle diffusion HYSPLIT model

Extended abstract 1- Introduction A dust storm is one of the biggest serious environmental problems in the arid and semi-arid regions of the world, causing irreparable damages to farms, facilities, roads, traffic and transportation every year and respitory problems by contaminating the air. Due to the geographic location of Iran which is  in the arid and semi-arid belt of the world, the count...

متن کامل

تحلیل روند فراوانی روزهای گردوغباری در نیمه شرقی ایران در ارتباط با نوسانات اقلیمی

Introduction: The occurrence of dust storms in deserts or arid regions increases the suspended dust particles to more than the allowed threshold, and this has negative effects on atmospheric conditions, human health and agricultural production. Positioning of Iran in the world arid and semi-arid belt is exposed to various types of dust storm systems. Occurrence of severe dust storms in most par...

متن کامل

Determining Area Affected by Dust Storms in Different Wind Speeds, Using Satellite Images

The aim of this study is to determine the area affected by dust storms in different wind speeds using satelliteimages. In the first step, windy conditions of the Sistan plain were analyzed using wind statistics data. Next, fivestormy days of Zabol city, indicating different wind speeds and horizontal visibilities during those storms, wereselected. Then, high temporal resolution MODIS data was u...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2002